Mets at Brewers
Last play · William Contreras flies out to right fielder Carson Benge.
Win probability
Brewers0%
NYM 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 3 – 0 MIL
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Benge doubles (13) on a ground ball to right fielder Luis Lara. Bo Bichette scores. Francisco Lindor scores. (inning 5) — -21% Mets
8Luis Robert Jr. homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.4–0
5Carson Benge doubles (13) on a ground ball to right fielder Luis Lara. Bo Bichette scores. Francisco Lindor scores.3–0
2Jared Young homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
