Rockies at Brewers
Last play · Cole Carrigg flies out to left fielder Jackson Chourio.
Win probability
Brewers100%
COL 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 3 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+290 / -373
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers grounds out to first baseman TJ Rumfield. William Contreras scores. (inning 1) — +16% Brewers
8Andrew Vaughn out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Troy Johnston. Jackson Chourio scores.2–11
7Luis Lara doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Gary Sánchez scores.2–10
7Gary Sánchez doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. Jake Bauers scores.2–9
7Willi Castro homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.2–8
6Jackson Chourio grounds out softly, catcher Hunter Goodman to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Cooper Pratt scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd.1–8
6Cooper Pratt doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Gary Sánchez scores. Luis Lara scores.1–7
6Luis Lara doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. Jake Bauers scores. Gary Sánchez to 3rd.1–5
6Andrew Vaughn homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
