Pirates at Brewers
Last play · Esmerlyn Valdez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
PIT 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 3 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew Vaughn singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. William Contreras scores. Christian Yelich scores. (inning 4) — +17% Brewers
7Endy Rodríguez homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryan Reynolds scores.2–4
6William Contreras homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.0–4
4Andrew Vaughn singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. William Contreras scores. Christian Yelich scores.0–3
4Christian Yelich doubles (18) on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Garrett Mitchell scores. William Contreras to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
