Twins at Brewers
Last play · Garrett Mitchell grounds out, second baseman Royce Lewis to first baseman Victor Caratini.
Win probability
Brewers0%
MIN 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 6 – 6 MIL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+158 / -170
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Keaschall singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Royce Lewis scores. Josh Bell to 3rd. Kody Clemens to 2nd. (inning 5) — -16% Twins
6Josh Bell singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Royce Lewis scores.8–6
6Royce Lewis doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Ryan Jeffers scores.7–6
5Garrett Mitchell singles on a ground ball to shortstop Kaelen Culpepper. Brice Turang scores. Jackson Chourio to 3rd.6–6
5Jake Bauers out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Martin. David Hamilton scores.6–5
5Kaelen Culpepper grounds into a double play, shortstop Cooper Pratt to second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Jake Bauers. Josh Bell scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd. Luke Keaschall out at 2nd. Kaelen Culpepper out at 1st.6–4
5Luke Keaschall singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Royce Lewis scores. Josh Bell to 3rd. Kody Clemens to 2nd.5–4
4Austin Martin doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Victor Caratini scores. Ryan Kreidler out at home on the throw, left fielder Jackson Chourio to shortstop Cooper Pratt to catcher William Contreras.4–4
4Kaelen Culpepper homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.3–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
