Mariners at Brewers
Last play · Victor Robles grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman David Hamilton. Josh Naylor out at 3rd.
Win probability
Brewers100%
SEA 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 6 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Chourio singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. David Hamilton scores. (inning 5) — +10% Brewers
8Luis Lara singles on a fly ball to right fielder Victor Robles. William Contreras scores.0–22
8Christian Yelich out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Andrew Vaughn scores. Jonathan Ornelas scores. William Contreras to 3rd. Throwing error by center fielder Julio Rodríguez.0–21
8William Contreras walks. Brandon Lockridge scores. Andrew Vaughn to 3rd. Jonathan Ornelas to 2nd.0–19
8Jonathan Ornelas singles on a fly ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Joey Ortiz scores. Brandon Lockridge to 3rd. Andrew Vaughn to 2nd.0–18
8Andrew Vaughn singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Garrett Mitchell scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd. Brandon Lockridge to 2nd.0–17
8Luis Lara homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. William Contreras scores. Christian Yelich scores.0–16
7Andrew Vaughn reaches on a fielder's choice out, third baseman Weston Wilson to second baseman Cole Young. Joey Ortiz scores. David Hamilton to 3rd. Brandon Lockridge out at 2nd. Andrew Vaughn advances to 1st, on a missed catch error by first baseman Josh Naylor, assist to second baseman Cole Young.0–13
7David Hamilton singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Luis Lara scores. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.0–12
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
