Mariners at Brewers
Last play · Julio Rodríguez lines out sharply to center fielder Garrett Mitchell.
Win probability
Brewers100%
SEA 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 4 – 6 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+127 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gary Sánchez doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Brice Turang scores. Jake Bauers scores. (inning 1) — +17% Brewers
8Garrett Mitchell homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.4–7
4Dominic Canzone singles on a fly ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Jhonny Pereda scores. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.4–6
4Randy Arozarena walks.3–6
2Brendan Donovan doubles (7) on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Taylor Ward scores. Brock Rodden scores.2–6
1David Hamilton doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Garrett Mitchell scores.0–6
1Garrett Mitchell doubles (25) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Christian Yelich scores. Joey Ortiz scores.0–5
1Joey Ortiz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Gary Sánchez scores. Christian Yelich to 3rd.0–3
1Gary Sánchez doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Brice Turang scores. Jake Bauers scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
