Braves at Brewers
Last play · Ronald Acuña Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
ATL 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 2 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
6
opened 6.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+127 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew Vaughn grounds into a force out, shortstop Mauricio Dubón to second baseman Ozzie Albies. Jackson Chourio scores. William Contreras out at 2nd. Andrew Vaughn to 1st. (inning 3) — +12% Brewers
8Michael Harris II singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Matt Olson to 2nd.1–2
3Andrew Vaughn grounds into a force out, shortstop Mauricio Dubón to second baseman Ozzie Albies. Jackson Chourio scores. William Contreras out at 2nd. Andrew Vaughn to 1st.0–2
3William Contreras singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II, deflected by pitcher Chris Sale. Luis Lara scores. Jackson Chourio to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
