Braves at Brewers
ATL4–
MIL2Last play · Brewers challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Brewers challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Jake Bauers grounds into a double play, pitcher Raisel Iglesias to shortstop Mauricio Dubón to first baseman Matt Olson. Brice Turang out at 2nd. Jake Bauers out at 1st.
Win probability
Brewers0%
ATL 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 1 MIL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+101 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Harris II homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 9) — -21% Braves
9Michael Harris II homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.4–2
8Luis Lara triples (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Christian Yelich scores.3–2
6Michael Harris II reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Mauricio Dubón scores. Austin Riley to 3rd.3–1
4Sean Murphy singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman David Hamilton. Drake Baldwin scores. Lane Thomas to 2nd.2–1
3Jake Bauers singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Brice Turang scores. Jake Bauers to 2nd.1–1
2Mauricio Dubón hits a ground-rule double (24) on a line drive down the right-field line. Ozzie Albies scores. Lane Thomas to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.