Braves at Brewers
Last play · Austin Riley grounds into a double play, shortstop Cooper Pratt to second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Jake Bauers. Mauricio Dubón out at 2nd. Austin Riley out at 1st.
Win probability
Brewers100%
ATL 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 4 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+142 / -153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. William Contreras scores. (inning 3) — +23% Brewers
4Cooper Pratt out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Joey Ortiz scores. Luis Lara to 2nd.1–4
3Jake Bauers homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. William Contreras scores.1–3
3William Contreras singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Cooper Pratt scores.1–1
1Michael Harris II doubles (30) on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Drake Baldwin scores. Matt Olson to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
