Cubs at Brewers
CHC6–
MIL8Last play · BJ Murray Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CHC 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 7 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Yelich homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras scores. (inning 1) — +24% Brewers
9Michael Conforto doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Ian Happ scores. Nico Hoerner scores.6–8
9Pedro Ramírez grounds out, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Michael Busch scores. Ian Happ to 3rd. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.4–8
9Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Seiya Suzuki scores. Michael Busch to 3rd. Ian Happ to 2nd.3–8
9Ian Happ walks. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Michael Busch to 2nd.2–8
6William Contreras singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Michael Conforto. Brice Turang scores.1–8
4Michael Busch grounds out, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–7
3Jackson Chourio singles on a line drive to left fielder Michael Conforto. Garrett Mitchell scores.0–7
2William Contreras homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Brice Turang scores.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.