Red Sox at Twins
Last play · Carlos Narváez called out on strikes.
Win probability
Twins100%
BOS 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 5 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Twins favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Byron Buxton homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 3) — +18% Twins
6Byron Buxton homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.0–6
4Trevor Larnach singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Tristan Gray scores. Byron Buxton scores. Trevor Larnach out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Wilyer Abreu to shortstop Trevor Story.0–5
4Brooks Lee homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
3Byron Buxton homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
1Twins challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Twins challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Luke Keaschall singles on a line drive to center fielder Jarren Duran. Byron Buxton scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
