Red Sox at Twins
Last play · Austin Martin flies out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Twins0%
BOS 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 7 – 1 MIN
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Twins favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Story homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Masataka Yoshida scores. (inning 3) — -26% Red Sox
9Ryan Kreidler homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Matt Wallner scores. Brooks Lee scores.9–5
9Brooks Lee singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Tristan Gray scores. Matt Wallner to 2nd.9–2
6Trevor Story doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Roman Anthony scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.9–1
5Connor Wong out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson to first baseman Josh Bell. Andruw Monasterio scores. Marcelo Mayer to 2nd.7–1
5Andruw Monasterio doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Jarren Duran scores.6–1
3Trevor Story homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Masataka Yoshida scores.5–1
3Masataka Yoshida reaches on a fielder's choice. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Roman Anthony scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Luke Keaschall. Fielding error by second baseman Luke Keaschall.2–1
1Austin Martin homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
