Reds at Twins
Last play · Matt Wallner strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins0%
CIN 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dane Myers singles on a fly ball to center fielder Ryan Kreidler. Spencer Steer scores. (inning 9) — -34% Reds
9Dane Myers singles on a fly ball to center fielder Ryan Kreidler. Spencer Steer scores.5–4
8Rece Hinds flies into a sacrifice double play, center fielder Ryan Kreidler to first baseman Kody Clemens to shortstop Brooks Lee to second baseman Luke Keaschall. Eugenio Suárez scores. Matt McLain out at 2nd.4–4
7Elly De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Rece Hinds scores. Dane Myers to 2nd.3–4
5Brooks Lee singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Josh Bell scores. Trevor Larnach to 2nd.2–4
4Tyler Stephenson singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Eugenio Suárez scores.2–3
3Luke Keaschall singles on a line drive to right fielder Rece Hinds. Austin Martin scores.1–3
2Tyler Stephenson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ryan Kreidler. Sal Stewart scores.1–2
1Ryan Jeffers triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Austin Martin scores. Josh Bell scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
