Reds at Twins
Last play · Byron Buxton grounds out, second baseman Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart.
Win probability
Twins0%
CIN 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 1 MIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 4) — -26% Reds
5Austin Martin out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Will Benson. Brooks Lee scores. Ryan Kreidler to 3rd.2–1
4Eugenio Suárez doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
