Mariners at Twins
SEA4–
MIN11Last play · Cole Young lines into an unassisted double play, first baseman Kody Clemens. Mitch Garver out at 1st.
Win probability
Twins100%
SEA 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 7 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kody Clemens homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Bell scores. Ryan Jeffers scores. (inning 3) — +14% Twins
8Kody Clemens singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. James Outman scores. Ryan Jeffers scores.4–11
8Ryan Jeffers singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Brooks Lee scores. James Outman to 3rd.4–9
8Cal Raleigh homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Rob Refsnyder scores.4–8
6Trevor Larnach singles on a ground ball to second baseman Cole Young. Tristan Gray scores. Brooks Lee to 3rd.2–8
5Cole Young out on a sacrifice fly to third baseman Tristan Gray in foul territory. J.P. Crawford scores. Mitch Garver to 2nd.2–7
5Mitch Garver singles on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Randy Arozarena scores. J.P. Crawford to 3rd.1–7
4Byron Buxton homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Tristan Gray scores.0–7
3Kody Clemens homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Bell scores. Ryan Jeffers scores.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.