Reds at Twins
Last play · P.J. Higgins challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Brooks Lee called out on strikes.
Win probability
Twins0%
CIN 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 3 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · TJ Friedl doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Spencer Steer scores. Will Benson scores. Dane Myers scores. (inning 9) — -78% Reds
10Rece Hinds doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Eugenio Suárez scores. Will Benson scores.7–4
10Eugenio Suárez reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Tristan Gray. Elly De La Cruz scores. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd. Fielding error by left fielder Austin Martin.5–4
9Austin Martin doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Will Benson. James Outman scores.4–4
9TJ Friedl doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Spencer Steer scores. Will Benson scores. Dane Myers scores.4–3
4Sal Stewart grounds out, second baseman Luke Keaschall to first baseman Kody Clemens. Elly De La Cruz scores.1–3
3Victor Caratini singles on a ground ball to right fielder Rece Hinds. Trevor Larnach scores. Josh Bell to 2nd.0–3
3Josh Bell singles on a line drive to right fielder Rece Hinds. Byron Buxton scores. Trevor Larnach to 3rd.0–2
1Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder TJ Friedl. Byron Buxton scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
