Mariners at Twins
Last play · James Outman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins0%
SEA 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cole Young singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Randy Arozarena scores. Leo Rivas scores. (inning 9) — -71% Mariners
9Cal Raleigh out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Cole Young scores. Will Wilson to 3rd.5–3
9Cole Young singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Randy Arozarena scores. Leo Rivas scores.4–3
8Victor Caratini singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena, deflected by shortstop J.P. Crawford. James Outman scores.2–3
7Cole Young doubles (4) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Dominic Canzone scores.2–2
4Brooks Lee singles on a fly ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Ryan Jeffers scores. Kody Clemens scores. Luke Keaschall to 2nd.1–2
3J.P. Crawford homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
