Blue Jays at Twins
Last play · Andrés Giménez grounds into a double play, shortstop Brooks Lee to first baseman Kody Clemens. Ernie Clement out at 2nd. Andrés Giménez out at 1st.
Win probability
Twins100%
TOR 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Jeffers homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Trevor Larnach scores. (inning 4) — +29% Twins
8Luke Keaschall out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Davis Schneider. Josh Bell scores.1–7
8Josh Bell singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Davis Schneider. Byron Buxton scores. Ryan Jeffers scores. Throwing error by shortstop Andrés Giménez.1–6
6Austin Martin singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Trevor Larnach scores.1–4
6Byron Buxton homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
4Ryan Jeffers homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Trevor Larnach scores.1–2
4Daulton Varsho homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
