Blue Jays at Twins
TOR7–
MIN3Last play · Ryan Jeffers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins0%
TOR 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 6 – 2 MIN
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Byron Buxton homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Brooks Lee scores. (inning 3) — +25% Twins
7Ryan Jeffers out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Brooks Lee scores. Byron Buxton to 3rd.7–3
7Yohendrick Piñango singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Kazuma Okamoto scores.7–2
5Kazuma Okamoto homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.6–2
4Yohendrick Piñango singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Lenyn Sosa scores. Yohendrick Piñango to 2nd.4–2
4Kazuma Okamoto homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
3Byron Buxton homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Brooks Lee scores.2–2
2Yohendrick Piñango reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Josh Bell. Daulton Varsho scores. Lenyn Sosa scores. Yohendrick Piñango to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Josh Bell.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.