Marlins at Twins
Last play · Liam Hicks grounds out sharply, first baseman Kody Clemens to pitcher Bailey Ober.
Win probability
Twins100%
MIA 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 3 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Jeffers homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Trevor Larnach scores. (inning 5) — +33% Twins
5Ryan Jeffers homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Trevor Larnach scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
