Blue Jays at Twins
TOR3–
MIN4Last play · Lenyn Sosa grounds into a double play, second baseman Luke Keaschall to shortstop Brooks Lee to first baseman Kody Clemens. Davis Schneider out at 2nd. Lenyn Sosa out at 1st.
Win probability
Twins100%
TOR 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kazuma Okamoto homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Myles Straw scores. (inning 9) — -11% Blue Jays
9Kazuma Okamoto homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Myles Straw scores.3–4
6Daulton Varsho singles on a bunt ground ball to first baseman Kody Clemens. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Jesús Sánchez to 2nd.1–4
5Matt Wallner doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Kody Clemens scores.0–4
5Kody Clemens doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Luke Keaschall scores.0–3
5Luke Keaschall doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Victor Caratini scores.0–2
1Victor Caratini singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Trevor Larnach scores. Austin Martin to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.