Marlins at Twins
MIA9–
MIN5Last play · Austin Martin flies out to right fielder Owen Caissie.
Win probability
Twins0%
MIA 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 8 – 4 MIN
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Owen Caissie homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Leo Jiménez scores. (inning 2) — -18% Marlins
8Kody Clemens homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.9–5
6Liam Hicks reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Luke Keaschall. Xavier Edwards scores.9–4
5Josh Bell doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Brooks Lee scores. Austin Martin scores.8–4
4Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Joe Mack scores. Xavier Edwards scores.8–2
4Xavier Edwards doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Owen Caissie scores. Joe Mack to 3rd.6–2
4Joe Mack singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Leo Jiménez scores. Owen Caissie to 3rd.5–2
3Byron Buxton homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.4–2
2Owen Caissie homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Leo Jiménez scores.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.