Marlins at Twins
Last play · Leo Jiménez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
MIA 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 6 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Martin hits a ground-rule double (7) on a fly ball down the left-field line. Royce Lewis scores. Ryan Kreidler scores. James Outman to 3rd. (inning 2) — +20% Twins
8Austin Martin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Stowers. James Outman scores.1–9
8James Outman doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Esteury Ruiz. Luke Keaschall scores. Ryan Kreidler scores.1–8
8Otto Lopez singles on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Kreidler. Xavier Edwards scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd.1–6
3James Outman singles on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Ryan Kreidler scores. James Outman to 2nd.0–6
2Victor Caratini grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Christopher Morel. Ryan Jeffers scores. Josh Bell to 3rd.0–5
2Josh Bell doubles (8) on a ground ball to left fielder Kyle Stowers. James Outman scores. Austin Martin scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd.0–4
2Austin Martin hits a ground-rule double (7) on a fly ball down the left-field line. Royce Lewis scores. Ryan Kreidler scores. James Outman to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
