Brewers at Twins
Last play · Sal Frelick pops out to catcher Victor Caratini in foul territory.
Win probability
Twins100%
MIL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-129 / +107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kody Clemens doubles (10) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Ryan Jeffers scores. Kody Clemens scores. Throwing error by shortstop Joey Ortiz. (inning 3) — +23% Twins
9Jake Bauers singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Austin Martin. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd.4–5
8Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake Bauers. Luke Keaschall scores.3–5
5Ryan Jeffers homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.3–4
5Christian Yelich homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.3–3
4Garrett Mitchell homers (2) on a line drive to right center field.2–3
3Kody Clemens doubles (10) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Ryan Jeffers scores. Kody Clemens scores. Throwing error by shortstop Joey Ortiz.1–3
2Sal Frelick doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Jake Bauers scores.1–1
1Kody Clemens doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Austin Martin scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
