Brewers at Twins
Last play · Royce Lewis strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins0%
MIL 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 0 MIN
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-109 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers doubles (9) on a line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd. (inning 8) — -26% Brewers
8Jake Bauers doubles (9) on a line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd.3–2
8William Contreras reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Brooks Lee. Jackson Chourio scores. Interference error by third baseman Royce Lewis.2–2
7Royce Lewis singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Luke Keaschall scores. Kody Clemens out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Jackson Chourio to third baseman Luis Rengifo to second baseman Brice Turang to shortstop David Hamilton. Royce Lewis to 2nd.1–2
6Brooks Lee grounds into a double play, shortstop David Hamilton to second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Jake Bauers. James Outman scores. Austin Martin out at 2nd. Brooks Lee out at 1st.1–1
1William Contreras singles on a sharp ground ball to third baseman Royce Lewis, deflected by shortstop Brooks Lee. Jackson Chourio scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
