White Sox at Twins
Last play · Colson Montgomery strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
CWS 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 4 – 9 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tristan Gray hits a grand slam (4) to right center field. Austin Martin scores. Victor Caratini scores. Luke Keaschall scores. (inning 4) — +34% Twins
9Miguel Vargas homers (15) on a line drive to left field. Sam Antonacci scores.6–9
5Tristan Gray out on a sacrifice fly to third baseman Miguel Vargas in foul territory. Austin Martin scores. Victor Caratini to 2nd.4–9
5Luke Keaschall out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Rikuu Nishida. Trevor Larnach scores. Austin Martin to 3rd.4–8
5Victor Caratini singles on a line drive to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Josh Bell scores. Trevor Larnach to 3rd. Austin Martin to 2nd.4–7
5Austin Martin singles on a line drive to right fielder Rikuu Nishida. Kody Clemens scores. Josh Bell to 3rd. Trevor Larnach to 2nd.4–6
5Andrew Benintendi homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.4–5
5Miguel Vargas homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Rikuu Nishida scores.3–5
4Tristan Gray hits a grand slam (4) to right center field. Austin Martin scores. Victor Caratini scores. Luke Keaschall scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
