Royals at Twins
Last play · Kyle Isbel pops out to shortstop Tristan Gray.
Win probability
Twins100%
KC 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 1 MIN
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — +21% Twins
9Maikel Garcia grounds out, shortstop Tristan Gray to first baseman Orlando Arcia. Jac Caglianone scores. Michael Massey to 2nd.3–5
6Austin Martin grounds out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.2–5
6Orlando Arcia singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Josh Bell scores. Orlando Arcia to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Jac Caglianone.2–4
6Josh Bell doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Kody Clemens scores.2–3
6Brooks Lee homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
3Brooks Lee grounds into a force out, second baseman Michael Massey to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Alex Jackson scores. Tristan Gray out at 2nd. Brooks Lee to 1st.2–1
1Jac Caglianone doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.2–0
1Vinnie Pasquantino doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
