Royals at Twins
Last play · Brooks Lee grounds out, second baseman Tyler Tolbert to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Twins0%
KC 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 3 – 5 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Rojas singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Kreidler. Tyler Tolbert scores. Lane Thomas scores. Maikel Garcia to 2nd. (inning 9) — -41% Royals
9Josh Rojas singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Kreidler. Tyler Tolbert scores. Lane Thomas scores. Maikel Garcia to 2nd.8–6
6Victor Caratini homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.6–6
6Bobby Witt Jr. reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Ryan Kreidler. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 2nd.6–5
6Carter Jensen doubles (9) on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Isaac Collins scores. Kyle Isbel scores. Carter Jensen to 3rd.5–5
5Kody Clemens homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.3–5
4Ryan Kreidler triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel, deflected by left fielder Isaac Collins. Trevor Larnach scores.3–4
4Michael Massey homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.3–3
3Kody Clemens homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
