Royals at Twins
Last play · Royce Lewis called out on strikes.
Win probability
Twins0%
KC 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 1 MIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carter Jensen out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Austin Martin. Tyler Tolbert scores. (inning 9) — -38% Royals
9Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Kody Clemens. Josh Rojas scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 2nd.3–2
9Carter Jensen out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Austin Martin. Tyler Tolbert scores.2–2
8Orlando Arcia homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
5Tristan Gray out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Austin Martin scores.1–1
1Carter Jensen homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
