Royals at Twins
Last play · Brooks Lee flies out to left fielder Isaac Collins.
Win probability
Twins0%
KC 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 5 – 1 MIN
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-119 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Starling Marte homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Lane Thomas scores. Maikel Garcia scores. (inning 5) — -29% Royals
9Victor Caratini singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Lane Thomas, deflected by pitcher Lucas Erceg. Trevor Larnach scores.6–5
9Josh Bell homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Orlando Arcia scores. Kody Clemens scores.6–4
8Carter Jensen out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.6–1
5Starling Marte homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Lane Thomas scores. Maikel Garcia scores.5–1
5Maikel Garcia singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Austin Martin, deflected by second baseman Luke Keaschall. Carter Jensen scores. Lane Thomas to 3rd.2–1
4Nick Loftin doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.1–1
2Ryan Kreidler grounds into a force out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to second baseman Nick Loftin. Kody Clemens scores. Royce Lewis out at 2nd. Ryan Kreidler to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
