Cardinals at Twins
Last play · Masyn Winn grounds out, shortstop Tristan Gray to first baseman Royce Lewis.
Win probability
Twins100%
STL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 2 MIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kody Clemens homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Luke Keaschall scores. Byron Buxton scores. (inning 7) — +49% Twins
8Brooks Lee homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.8–9
8Royce Lewis homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.8–8
8José Fermín singles on a ground ball to shortstop Tristan Gray. Bryan Torres scores. Blaze Jordan to 2nd.8–7
7Kody Clemens homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Luke Keaschall scores. Byron Buxton scores.7–7
7Jordan Walker doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores.7–4
7Alec Burleson walks. Jimmy Crooks scores. JJ Wetherholt to 3rd. Iván Herrera to 2nd.4–4
6Royce Lewis out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Nathan Church. Kody Clemens scores.3–4
6Josh Bell doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Byron Buxton scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
