Cardinals at Twins
Last play · Victor Caratini flies out to left fielder Lars Nootbaar.
Win probability
Twins0%
STL 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 4 MIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Keaschall homers (2) on a line drive to left field. Ryan Kreidler scores. (inning 5) — +29% Twins
9Josh Bell grounds into a force out, second baseman JJ Wetherholt to shortstop Masyn Winn. Brooks Lee scores. Trevor Larnach to 3rd. Tristan Gray out at 2nd. Josh Bell to 1st.9–6
8Kody Clemens singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Austin Martin scores. Byron Buxton to 3rd.9–5
7Blaze Jordan homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Lars Nootbaar scores. Alec Burleson scores.9–4
7Jordan Walker homers (18) on a fly ball to left field.6–4
7Iván Herrera homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.5–4
5Luke Keaschall homers (2) on a line drive to left field. Ryan Kreidler scores.4–4
4Royce Lewis homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.4–2
4Byron Buxton homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
