Dodgers at Twins
Last play · Brooks Lee grounds out, third baseman Max Muncy to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Win probability
Twins0%
LAD 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 1 MIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
10
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddie Freeman homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 6) — -22% Dodgers
6Freddie Freeman homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
1Byron Buxton homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Shohei Ohtani homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
