Dodgers at Twins
Last play · Byron Buxton strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins0%
LAD 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 4 – 3 MIN
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-164 / +135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Kreidler singles on a ground ball to center fielder Andy Pages. Brooks Lee scores. Tristan Gray scores. Ryan Kreidler out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Andy Pages to second baseman Alex Freeland. (inning 2) — +35% Twins
3Alex Call out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Kody Clemens. Freddie Freeman scores.4–3
3Max Muncy singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Kody Clemens. Shohei Ohtani scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd. Mookie Betts to 2nd.3–3
3Shohei Ohtani singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Alex Freeland scores.2–3
2Ryan Kreidler singles on a ground ball to center fielder Andy Pages. Brooks Lee scores. Tristan Gray scores. Ryan Kreidler out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Andy Pages to second baseman Alex Freeland.1–3
2Mookie Betts homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
