Dodgers at Twins
LAD12–
MIN3Last play · Kyler Fedko grounds out, pitcher Brock Stewart to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Win probability
Twins0%
LAD 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 5 – 2 MIN
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-181 / +149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Victor Caratini homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 2) — +15% Twins
9Brooks Lee homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.12–3
9Max Muncy doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Kyler Fedko. Andy Pages scores. Mookie Betts scores. Tommy Edman to 3rd.12–2
9Andy Pages singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyler Fedko. Miguel Rojas scores.10–2
9Miguel Rojas doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Alex Freeland scores.9–2
9Alex Call homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.8–2
7Chuckie Robinson out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Travis Adams to second baseman Luke Keaschall. Alex Call scores. Alex Freeland to 2nd.7–2
6Freddie Freeman doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kyler Fedko. Andy Pages scores.6–2
4Mookie Betts singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Andy Pages scores. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.5–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.