Rockies at Twins
Last play · Austin Martin flies out to right fielder Tyler Freeman.
Win probability
Twins0%
COL 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 3 – 1 MIN
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Hunter Goodman homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake McCarthy scores. Ezequiel Tovar scores. (inning 7) — -26% Rockies
9Trevor Larnach doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Brooks Lee scores. Tristan Gray scores. Luke Keaschall scores.8–5
8Kyle Karros homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Cole Carrigg scores.8–2
7Hunter Goodman homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake McCarthy scores. Ezequiel Tovar scores.6–2
6Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Josh Bell scores.3–2
5Mickey Moniak grounds out, second baseman Kody Clemens to first baseman Royce Lewis. Jake McCarthy scores.3–1
3Hunter Goodman homers (24) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
1Kody Clemens singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Trevor Larnach scores. Byron Buxton to 2nd.1–1
1Hunter Goodman homers (23) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
