Rockies at Twins
Last play · Royce Lewis singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Kyler Fedko scores. Victor Caratini to 2nd.
Win probability
Twins100%
COL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 7 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Hunter Goodman homers (22) on a fly ball to left field. Braxton Fulford scores. (inning 9) — -71% Rockies
10Royce Lewis singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Kyler Fedko scores. Victor Caratini to 2nd.8–9
9Byron Buxton singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake McCarthy, deflected by third baseman Willi Castro. Austin Martin scores. Ryan Kreidler to 2nd.8–8
9Hunter Goodman homers (22) on a fly ball to left field. Braxton Fulford scores.8–7
9Jake McCarthy homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Edouard Julien scores.6–7
9Edouard Julien doubles (6) on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton, deflected by left fielder Austin Martin. Cole Carrigg scores.4–7
8TJ Rumfield singles on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Jake McCarthy scores.3–7
8Hunter Goodman out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Edouard Julien scores. Jake McCarthy to 3rd.2–7
8Mickey Moniak grounds out to first baseman Royce Lewis. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Edouard Julien to 3rd. Jake McCarthy to 2nd.1–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
