Guardians at Twins
Last play · Gabriel Arias strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
CLE 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 1 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rhys Hoskins homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — -15% Guardians
7Kody Clemens triples (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Josh Bell scores.1–3
2Brooks Lee singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kahlil Watson. Ryan Kreidler scores. Luke Keaschall to 3rd.1–2
2Austin Martin out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Steven Kwan. Kody Clemens scores.1–1
2Rhys Hoskins homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
