Rockies at Twins
Last play · Mickey Moniak flies out to center fielder Kyler Fedko.
Win probability
Twins100%
COL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -173
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Kreidler homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 7) — +22% Twins
7Ryan Kreidler homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
6Troy Johnston singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall. TJ Rumfield scores.2–2
4Kody Clemens homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
2Brooks Lee singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Kyle Karros. Royce Lewis scores. Throwing error by third baseman Kyle Karros.1–1
1TJ Rumfield singles on a ground ball to third baseman Brooks Lee. Willi Castro scores. Hunter Goodman to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
