Guardians at Twins
Last play · Alan Roden singles on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Kahlil Watson. Royce Lewis scores. Alex Jackson to 3rd. Luke Keaschall to 2nd.
Win probability
Twins100%
CLE 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 3 MIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brayan Rocchio homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Chase DeLauter scores. (inning 4) — -26% Guardians
9Alan Roden singles on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Kahlil Watson. Royce Lewis scores. Alex Jackson to 3rd. Luke Keaschall to 2nd.5–6
7Kody Clemens walks. Ryan Kreidler scores. Austin Martin to 3rd. Brooks Lee to 2nd.5–5
7Brooks Lee walks. Luke Keaschall scores. Ryan Kreidler to 3rd. Austin Martin to 2nd.5–4
7Brayan Rocchio hits a sacrifice bunt. Fielding error by pitcher Taylor Rogers. Steven Kwan scores. Chase DeLauter to 2nd. Brayan Rocchio to 1st.5–3
7Chase DeLauter singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Alan Roden. Kahlil Watson scores. Steven Kwan to 3rd.4–3
4Alan Roden singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kahlil Watson. Josh Bell scores. Royce Lewis to 3rd.3–3
4Luke Keaschall out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kahlil Watson. Kody Clemens scores.3–2
4Royce Lewis walks. Brooks Lee scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd. Josh Bell to 2nd.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
