Angels at Twins
Last play · Logan O'Hoppe flies out to left fielder Austin Martin.
Win probability
Twins100%
LAA 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 1 – 3 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 52.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Jeffers doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Jo Adell. Ryan Kreidler scores. Trevor Larnach scores. (inning 3) — +23% Twins
8Trevor Larnach homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.2–4
7Denzer Guzman homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
3Ryan Jeffers doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Jo Adell. Ryan Kreidler scores. Trevor Larnach scores.1–3
3Trevor Larnach singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jorge Soler. Luke Keaschall scores. Ryan Kreidler to 3rd.1–1
2Josh Lowe homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
