Athletics at Twins
Last play · Brooks Lee grounds into a double play, pitcher Hogan Harris to second baseman Alika Williams to first baseman Jeff McNeil. Luke Keaschall out at 2nd. Brooks Lee out at 1st.
Win probability
Twins0%
ATH 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 0 MIN
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lawrence Butler out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Donovan Walton scores. (inning 5) — -16% Athletics
6Tyler Soderstrom singles on a ground ball to left fielder Austin Martin. Henry Bolte scores.2–0
5Lawrence Butler out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Donovan Walton scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
