Royals at Twins
Last play · Victor Caratini grounds out, pitcher Steven Cruz to first baseman Salvador Perez.
Win probability
Twins0%
KC 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 4 – 0 MIN
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+169 / -206
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Tolbert homers (3) on a line drive to left center field. (inning 3) — -18% Royals
5Jac Caglianone singles on a ground ball to first baseman Royce Lewis. Carter Jensen scores.4–0
5Carter Jensen doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Tyler Tolbert scores.3–0
4Nick Loftin out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Luke Keaschall. Salvador Perez scores.2–0
3Tyler Tolbert homers (3) on a line drive to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
