Orioles at Twins
Last play · Colton Cowser grounds out, second baseman Royce Lewis to first baseman Victor Caratini.
Win probability
Twins100%
BAL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Martin homers (3) on a line drive to left center field. (inning 3) — +15% Twins
9Coby Mayo singles on a line drive to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Pete Alonso scores. Jackson Holliday scores. Christian Franklin to 3rd.5–9
8Royce Lewis singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Ryan Jeffers scores.3–9
8Ryan Jeffers doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Austin Martin scores.3–8
8Christian Encarnacion-Strand grounds out, third baseman Brooks Lee to first baseman Victor Caratini. Coby Mayo scores. Colton Cowser to 2nd.3–7
8Coby Mayo doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Leody Taveras scores.2–7
7Josh Bell homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Ryan Jeffers scores. Royce Lewis scores.1–7
7Ryan Jeffers singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Ryan Kreidler scores. Austin Martin scores.1–4
4Kaelen Culpepper out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Luke Keaschall scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
