Orioles at Twins
Last play · Josh Bell strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins0%
BAL 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 5 – 2 MIN
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. Gunnar Henderson scores. (inning 1) — -21% Orioles
3Brooks Lee doubles (19) on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill, deflected by first baseman Pete Alonso. Ryan Jeffers scores. Josh Bell to 3rd.5–2
3Christian Encarnacion-Strand homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.5–1
2Alan Roden grounds out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Pete Alonso. Royce Lewis scores. Brooks Lee to 3rd. Luke Keaschall to 2nd.4–1
2Gunnar Henderson homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Yohel Pozo scores.4–0
1Pete Alonso homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. Gunnar Henderson scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
