Orioles at Twins
BAL5–
MIN7Last play · Gunnar Henderson grounds out, pitcher Yoendrys Gómez to first baseman Royce Lewis.
Win probability
Twins100%
BAL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 4 – 7 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Beavers homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Pete Alonso scores. Tyler O'Neill scores. (inning 3) — -35% Orioles
9Leody Taveras homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.5–7
5Royce Lewis doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Alan Roden scores.4–7
5Trevor Larnach grounds out to first baseman Pete Alonso. Victor Caratini scores. Alan Roden to 3rd.4–6
3Alan Roden doubles (2) on a fly ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Brooks Lee scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd.4–5
3Victor Caratini singles on a line drive to center fielder Christian Franklin. Kody Clemens scores. Brooks Lee to 2nd.4–4
3Luke Keaschall out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Christian Franklin. Josh Bell scores.4–3
3Kody Clemens singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Royce Lewis scores. Josh Bell to 2nd.4–2
3Dylan Beavers homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Pete Alonso scores. Tyler O'Neill scores.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.