Phillies at Twins
Last play · Ryan Jeffers flies out to right fielder Derek Hill.
Win probability
Twins0%
PHI 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 8 – 0 MIN
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-133 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.T. Realmuto out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Luis Arraez scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd. (inning 2) — -15% Phillies
9J.T. Realmuto out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Martin. Alec Bohm scores.9–1
6Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Royce Lewis doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Edmundo Sosa. Ryan Jeffers scores.8–1
5Bryson Stott homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Alec Bohm scores. Edmundo Sosa scores.8–0
5Edmundo Sosa singles on a ground ball to left fielder Austin Martin. Bryce Harper scores. Luis Arraez scores. Alec Bohm to 2nd.5–0
5Alec Bohm singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd. Luis Arraez to 2nd.3–0
5Luis Arraez walks. J.T. Realmuto scores. Trea Turner to 3rd. Bryce Harper to 2nd.2–0
2J.T. Realmuto out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Luis Arraez scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
