Phillies at Twins
Last play · Byron Buxton strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins0%
PHI 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 5 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Derek Hill scores. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd. (inning 8) — -39% Phillies
8Bryan De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Derek Hill scores. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.7–5
8Alec Bohm singles on a fly ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall, deflected by first baseman Royce Lewis. Bryce Harper scores. Derek Hill to 3rd. Alec Bohm to 2nd. Alec Bohm advances to 2nd, on a fielding error by first baseman Royce Lewis.5–5
6Alec Bohm homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Bryson Stott scores. Bryce Harper scores.4–5
6Luis Arraez grounds out softly, second baseman Kody Clemens to first baseman Royce Lewis. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd. Bryce Harper to 2nd.1–5
3Kody Clemens homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.0–5
1Brooks Lee hits a grand slam (18) to right field. Josh Bell scores. Kody Clemens scores. Royce Lewis scores.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
