Braves at Twins
Last play · Drake Baldwin flies out to left fielder Kody Clemens.
Win probability
Twins100%
ATL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Bell hits a ground-rule double (25) on a fly ball down the right-field line. Luke Keaschall scores. Byron Buxton scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd. (inning 1) — +17% Twins
5Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Alan Roden. Austin Riley scores. Drake Baldwin scores.2–4
1Kody Clemens singles on a ground ball to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Josh Bell scores. Royce Lewis to 2nd.0–4
1Royce Lewis singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Ryan Jeffers scores. Josh Bell to 3rd.0–3
1Josh Bell hits a ground-rule double (25) on a fly ball down the right-field line. Luke Keaschall scores. Byron Buxton scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
