Braves at Twins
Last play · Austin Riley flies out to right fielder Luke Keaschall.
Win probability
Twins100%
ATL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-147 / +137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Bell homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Ryan Jeffers scores. (inning 1) — +17% Twins
8Ryan Jeffers doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Kaelen Culpepper scores. Byron Buxton scores.1–4
6Drake Baldwin homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
1Josh Bell homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Ryan Jeffers scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
